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TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 17.1S 53.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
Tropical Cyclone (TC) 06S (BEJISA), located approximately 233 NM
North-Northwest of ST Denis, La Reunion, has tracked southward at 10 knots over the past six hours. Animated multi spectral satellite imagery (MSI) shows the TC 06S has completed an eyewall replacement circle (ERC) as deep convection has started to re-build around a newly re-formed 15NM ragged eye in the past six hours.
SSMIS 91 GHZ Microwave image reveals deep convection building along the eastern semi-circle of the eyewall, also signalling the completion of the ERC. The current position is based on the ragged eye feature seen in the MSI and Infra-red Satellite Loops. The initial intensity of 90 knots is based on DVORAK Intensity estimates that range from 90 to 102 knots and is consistent with the system’s current structure. Upper level analysis indicates the system in a favourable environment as vertical wind shear (VWS) remains low (10-15 knots) and strong poleward outflow continues. TC 06S Bejisa is currently tracking southward under the influence of the subtropical ridge (STR) that is positioned to the east of the system. In the next day, an approaching trough is expected to weaken the STR which will deflect TC 06S (BEJISA) to the southeast through TAU 48 (Time 48 hours after the present time of the forecast). After TAU 48, the trough is forecast to propagate east which will allow another subtropical ridge to quickly build in to the south of the system and produce a southwest-ward track change. Due to te completion of the ERC, TTAU 48, the trough is forecast to propagate east which will allow another subtropical ridge to quickly build in to the south of the system and produce a southwest-ward track change. Due to the completion of the ERC, TC Bejisa is now expected to re-intensify to a peak of 105 knots by TAU 24 as favourable environmental conditions.
After which, cooling sea surface temperatures (SSTS) and increasing VWS will start to graduallyweaken the system with more rapid weakening expected TAU 48 due to cold SSTS (<26 degrees celsius) and further increasing VWS associated with the westerlies. Just after TAU 96, TC BEJISA will begin to encounter a weak baroclinic zone which will induce extra-tropical transistion by TAU 120. With the continued exception of EGRR, MODEL GUIDANCE is in good agreement with the forecast track through TAU 72; However, guidance diverges in the TAUS due to uncertainties in the track speed ans timing of the southwest-ward turn. Overall, dur to the transitioning steering influences throughout the forecast, low confidence remains in the JWC TRACK FORECAST, which is positioned close to a multi-model consensus. Maximum significant wave height at 35 feet.
It is now very likely that the system will still be significantly strong as it will approach, Reunion island. On the other hand, a closer transit or a direct impact on the island is not excluded at this time. All pending on the timing and the degree of the recurvature in the southeast-wards turn. As for Mauritius, cyclonic weather conditions might mostly be felt in the southwest part of the island with rainfall on mostly the higher lands.
Mauritius a cyclone warning class two is maintained and for Reunion island, orange alert !Inhabitants from Reunion island are invited to closely monitor the progress of this dangerous system.