TROPICAL CYCLONE BEJISA Land Hazards, Reunion island, Mauritius

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Link to real time BEJISA Satellite Loop
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/storm/movies/MOV8-4.06S.GIF

Mauritius: A cyclone warning Class II is in force in Mauritius.

Reunion island: Red Alert.

Forecast for this afternoon Tropical Cyclone BEJISA 966 hPa is positioned at 20.8S and 54.5E 80 km South-West of Reunion, it moves to the South-East at 15 km/h. Cyclonic weather conditions generalized all over Reunion island with heavy rains sometimes accompanied by thunderstorms. Wind exceeds 150 km/h gusting especially on the west facade and can exceed 200 km/h on the high. Heavy seas on the west and north coasts with risks of flooding. No waiting lull this afternoon. It was noted: 151 km/h in Petite France, 130 km/h gusts to Port, 138 km/h in Plaine des Cafres. From 13h today to 13h yesterday 441mm at La Plaine des chicots, 610mm at La Nouvelle, 693mm at Commerson, 167mm at La Pointe du Goufre, 131mm at Saint Benoit, 126mm at Saint Joseph, 72mm in the Port. Waves measuring 4.3m average and 7.4m maximum at the East Port.

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z --- NEAR 20.4S 54.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

The eye is again visible on infra-red satellite imagery, but last micro-waves data (SSMIS 0138Z) show an open eye in the north quadrant, induced by the north-westerly increasing wind shear (300AO/14KT according to the CIMSS).

BEJISA is moving south-south-eastward under the steering influence of the mid-tropospheric ridge existing in its north east. Today morning, this mid-tropospheric ridge should shift to the north of BEJISA. So the system should go on a south-eastward track and it is expected to track towards Reunion island with a closest point of approach at the ending afternoon. From tomorrow, BEJISA should undergo the steering influence of the high pressure in the low and mid layers and should recurved southward the south-westward.

On this forecasted track the system could keep on undergoing the moderate north-westerly upper level wind shear ahead of an upper tropospheric trough located south-east of Madagascar, on Friday. On Saturday, the system may stay located under the axis of the upper level trough and then the weakening may temporally make a pause, then resume more clearly on Sunday with the strengthening westerly vertical wind shear.

For Mauritius cyclonic weather conditions will be mostly felt on the north-west west and south-west facade of the island affecting mostly the south south-west part of the island. Heavy rainfall will be registered on the island in general and flooding might be of actuality. The West coast will be rough with waves of 4 to 6 meters.
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