TROPICAL CYCLONE, BEJISA Current Status

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Real-time Bejisa tracking: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/storm/movies/MOV8-4.06S.GIF

TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

WARNING POSITION:
021800Z — NEAR 21.9S 55.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM SOUTH OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

Mauritius:
No cyclone warning is in power in Mauritius

Reunion island:
Reunion is in safeguard alert. Reunion is on vigilance for heavy rain, strong winds and high waves. Tropical Cyclone BEJISA was located Friday, January 3, 2014 at 7 am in the 125 km South-East of Reunion.

For the last 6 hours, Infra-red satellite imagery show that BEJISA has clearly de-structured. The system has slightly degraded as convection has shallowed and the eye has become ragged ans partially cloud filled. .The North-western part of the system is dislocated. 1800Z CIMSS DATA suggest a strengthening westerly wind-shear (280/19 KT). DVORAK signature has dropped at 4.0 (Averaged on 3 hours).

Within the next six hours, BEJISA should continue to move a south south-eastward track under the steering influence of the mid- tropospheric ridge existing in its north east. From today afternoon, BSJISA should under the steering influence of the subtropical high pressures in the low and mid layers and re-curve southward then south-westward.

On this forecast track, the system could keep on undergoing the westerly to the north-westerly upper level wind-shear ahead of an upper tropospheric arriving from the south-west. This wind-shear will be more efficient due the change of direction on the track. On Saturday, the system may stay located temporarily under the axis of the upper level trough, and then the weakening may be less rapid. This weakening should be again more rapid Sunday with the strengthening north-westerly vertical wind-shear. The system should begin its extra-tropicalisation Saturday and fill up Tuesday far in the south of Madagascar.

 

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