EDILSON Land Hazards tracker

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Link to real time EDILSON Satellite Loop
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/storm/movies/MOV8-4.13S.GIF

Mauritius: Cyclone warning Class 3 is in force.

Rodrigues: Cyclone warning Class 1 is in force.

Reunion island: Less unstable weather conditions but more humidity. Reunion is in orange vigilance alert. Moderate Tropical Storm Edilson 994 hPa was located at 540 km north-east of the island at 16 hours moving to the South-West at 15 km / h.

1. A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  10  (EDILSON)
2. A POSITION 2014/02/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 59.7 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3. A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H
4. A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5. A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :93 KM
6. A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 200 SW: 190 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0
7. A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 600 KM
8. A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/02/06 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2014/02/06 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 57.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/02/07 00 UTC: 25.0 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2014/02/07 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 52.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2014/02/08 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2014/02/08 12 UTC: 31.9 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/02/09 12 UTC: 36.2 S / 46.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2014/02/10 12 UTC: 41.3 S / 49.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

Tropical cyclone (TC) 13S EDILSON, located approximately 297 NM east north-east of Saint Denis of Reunion island, has tracked southward at 08 knots over the past six hours. A recent 12 hours animated multi-spectral satellite imagery shows the system has maintained the same symmetry and convective depth. The initial intensity is slightly higher than AGENCY DVORAK estimates of 35 knots to reflect the sustained convective signature of the system. Upper level analysis indicates TC 13S is 17 degrees south of the ridge axis in an area of light ( 05 – 10 knots ) vertical wind shear ( VWS ). Additionally, animated water vapour imagery shows good equator-ward and poleward outflow channels that are enhancing the convection. The cyclone is currently tracking along the western periphery of a mid-layered subtropical ridge ( STR ) to the east. It is expected to track on a more south westward direction as the STR builds. However, after TAU 72, a mid-latitude trough approaching from the south-west will weaken the STR and cause the cyclone to deflect south eastward towards extra-tropical transition.

Over the next 48 hours, the system is expected to gradually intensify as low VWS and good radial outflow persist. Afterwards, as TC Edilson moves further poleward, increasing VWS and cooling sea surface temperatures will begin to weaken the system and possibly dissipate it before the end of the forecast period. In view of the improved agreement among the models, there is high confidence in the JTWC track forecast.

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