EDILSON: No cyclone warning in force and tropical disturbance insight

No cyclone warning is in force in Mauritius.
Current Wind Speed 50 knots / MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 60 knots / MPH

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Last SSMIS pass at 0324Z show a remaining slight tilde due to a moderate northerly to north-westerly constraint ( 12 knot accordingly to CIMMS analysis at 00Z ), with a quite close eye wall except in the south-eastern sector under the steering influence of a northerly to north-easterly flow, Edilson is now accelerating on a south south-westwards track and this motion is expected to continue during the next 48 hours. Available guidances remain in good agreement. The sheared conditions should maintain today but due to the speed and direction of its trajectory, unfavourable effect of the shear remain limited and the system should go on deepening. Edilson is expected to maintain an asymmetric circulation with strongest winds and heavy rains mainly located within the south-eastern semi-circle. South of 20S, the northerly shear is expected to increase Friday and Saturday, NWP guidances also suggest a positive interaction with the upper level dynamics associated with the mid-latitude trough that should persist to the south-east of Madagascar. This interaction may maintain or slightly increase the intensity of the system that will evolve to a post-tropical structure.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

POSITION 2014/02/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 70.6 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 6 KT 
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SW: 260 NW: 240
FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

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The system shows a monsoon depression structure with strongest winds 30 knot located according last ASCAT data at 0402Z far from the centre of into the monsoon and trades flow north and south of the system. Until Friday, the system should track slowly mainly southwards under the current effect of two middle level high; one in the north-west and the second in the south-east. Saturday, the northern high cell is expected to become predominant and located in the north-east, so the track will be more south-eastwards. Sunday a ridge develop in the east of the system generating a northerly steering flow, then north-westerly on Monday. Until Saturday, environmental conditions are very favourable to intensification. On Sunday the system should benefit of a positive interaction with the upper level dynamics associated with the mid-latitude trough coming from the south south-east. On Monday the system is expected to remain under the axis of this trough.

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