TROPICAL CYCLONE BANSI Land Hazards, Reunion island, Mauritius (4hr15 PM forecast)

Maurice / Mauritius / Rodrigues / Agalega
A cyclone warning class II is still in force in Mauritius.
Un avertissement de cyclone de Classe 2 est toujours en vigueur a Maurice.
Reunion Island/ La Réunion

Alizé modéré de secteur Est.
Moderate East trade wind.

BANSI Current Status

Current Wind Speed 85 knots / MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 125 knots / 144 MPH at Tuesday, 13 Jan 2015 4hr15 PM

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Link to real time BANSI Satellite Loop
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/storm/movies/MOV8-4.05S.GIF

Forecast for this afternoon at 4hr15: Tropical Cyclone Bansi, located approximately 191 NM North West of Port Louis, Mauritius, has tracked Eastward at 07 knots over the past six hours. The current position is based on a recent satellite eye fix from PGTW. The intensity of 100 Knots is constant with DVORAK T number estimates of 5.
5 from multiple reporting agencies.

Tropical Cyclone Bansi has continued to rapidly intensify over the past 12 hours under the influence of passage over warm water, low ventricle wind shear and dual channel outflow aloft. Tropical Cyclone Bansi is tracking eastward along the southern periphery of a near equatorial steering ridge. Generally Eastward, but slower, motion is expected to continue for the nest 48 hours as the primary steering mechanism switches over from the near equatorial ridge to a subtropical ridge to the east. After TAU 48, Tropical Cyclone Bansi is expected to turn Southeastward and accelerate along the Southwestern periphery of the subtropical steering ridge. Near-term intensification is anticipated over the next 36 hours as favorable upper-level conditions persist. Tropical Cyclone Bansi is expected to begin weakening after TAU 48 as vertical wind shear increases and along-track ocean heat content decreases. Numerical model track forecast guidance is in generally good agreement through TAU 48, lending high confidence to the first portion of the track forecast. After TAU 48, the UKMET diverges to the East and COAMP-TC to the South of the current forecast. However, ECMWF, GFS and NAVGEM are in good agreement in the TAU 48 to TAU 120 timeframe and the JTWC forecast is consistent with this grouping as well as the multi-model consensus. Maximum significant wave height at 120600Z is 26 feet.

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