TROPICAL CYCLONE BANSI Land Hazards, Reunion island, Mauritius (4hr15 PM forecast)

Maurice / Mauritius / Rodrigues / Agalega
A cyclone warning class II is still in force in Mauritius.
Un avertissement de cyclone de Classe 2 est toujours en vigueur a Maurice.
Reunion Island/ La Réunion

Alizé modéré de secteur Est.
Moderate East trade wind.

BANSI Current Status

Current Wind Speed 85 knots / MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 125 knots / 144 MPH at Tuesday, 13 Jan 2015 4hr15 PM

UntitledA

Link to real time BANSI Satellite Loop
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/storm/movies/MOV8-4.05S.GIF

Forecast for this afternoon at 4hr15: Tropical Cyclone Bansi, located approximately 191 NM North West of Port Louis, Mauritius, has tracked Eastward at 07 knots over the past six hours. The current position is based on a recent satellite eye fix from PGTW. The intensity of 100 Knots is constant with DVORAK T number estimates of 5.
5 from multiple reporting agencies.

Tropical Cyclone Bansi has continued to rapidly intensify over the past 12 hours under the influence of passage over warm water, low ventricle wind shear and dual channel outflow aloft. Tropical Cyclone Bansi is tracking eastward along the southern periphery of a near equatorial steering ridge. Generally Eastward, but slower, motion is expected to continue for the nest 48 hours as the primary steering mechanism switches over from the near equatorial ridge to a subtropical ridge to the east. After TAU 48, Tropical Cyclone Bansi is expected to turn Southeastward and accelerate along the Southwestern periphery of the subtropical steering ridge. Near-term intensification is anticipated over the next 36 hours as favorable upper-level conditions persist. Tropical Cyclone Bansi is expected to begin weakening after TAU 48 as vertical wind shear increases and along-track ocean heat content decreases. Numerical model track forecast guidance is in generally good agreement through TAU 48, lending high confidence to the first portion of the track forecast. After TAU 48, the UKMET diverges to the East and COAMP-TC to the South of the current forecast. However, ECMWF, GFS and NAVGEM are in good agreement in the TAU 48 to TAU 120 timeframe and the JTWC forecast is consistent with this grouping as well as the multi-model consensus. Maximum significant wave height at 120600Z is 26 feet.

Untitledd

10888139_10205567175729366_1590619684_n

10922015_10205567175649364_1288332571_n

TROPICAL CYCLONE BANSI Land Hazards, Reunion island, Mauritius

Maurice / Mauritius / Rodrigues / Agalega
A cyclone warning class II is in force in Mauritius.
Un avertissement de cyclone de Classe 2 est en vigueur a Maurice.
Reunion Island/ La Réunion

Alizé modéré de secteur Est.
Moderate East trade wind.

BANSI Current Status
Current Wind Speed 65 knots / MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 120 knots / 138 MPH at Tuesday, 13 Jan 2015 4:15 AM

UntitledSS

Link to real time BANSI Satellite Loop
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/storm/movies/MOV8-4.05S.GIF
Forecast for this morning at 4hr15: Tropical Cyclone Bansi, located approximately 219NM North West of Po rt Louis, Mauritius, has tracked South-Southeastward at 04 knots over the past six hours. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a rapidly consolidating system with a 25 NM ragged eye.

Tropical Cyclone Bansi has rapidly intensified 35 knots over the past 24 hours from 30 knots to the current intensity of 65 knots. A 111611Z GPM 36 GHZ microwave image indicates a well organised low level circulation center with fragmented, multiple bands wrapping into the low level circulation center. Upper level analysis reveals a very favorable environment with dual channel outflow. There is high confidence in the current position based on the eye feature. The current intensity is based on DVORAK estimates of T4.0 (65 Knots)

From all agencies Tropical Cyclone Bansi is tracking slowly South Southeastward but is forecast to turn Eastward through TAU 36 as the near equatorial ridge shifts equatorward of the system. After  TAU 36, Tropical Cyclone Bansi should begin to steer under the influence of the subtropical ridge positioned to the east and is expecting to maintain a southeastward track through TAU 120.

The dynamic guidance is in fair agreement supporting the general track, however, GFDN AND EGRR depict an unlikely East Northeastward track through TAU 36. In direct disagreement, satellite imagery through 111930Z continues to show a southward track motion. After TAU 36, dynamic guidance reflects similar track motion and synoptic steering environment.

Overall, there is low confidence in the JTWC forecast track due to the spread in model guidance. Tropical Cyclone Bansi is forecast to continue rapidly intensifying through TAU 48 to peak of 120 Knots due to very favorable outflow and warm SST (greater than 29C). After 48, environmental conditions will gradually deteriorate as SST and ocean heat content decrease to marginal levels.
Maximum significant wave height at 111800Z is 18 feet.