Eclipses; Myth or Science: What it really implies?

Many of us have heard about myths surrounding the aspects of eclipses but rare are those who truly acknowledges the real effects of this natural phase on human health. While many believe in lot of traditional rituals on these days, ancient scientific, believes which might have been lost in course of time, are now being supported by modern science today.
Eclipses ( Solar and Lunar ) and Solar Flares do affect perspectives, moods, emotions and behavioral patterns in human. All of us are subjects to some changes while some are more vulnerable.

“The idea that spots on the sun or solar flares might influence human health on earth at first appears to lack scientific credibility.
However, when significant correlations between hospital admissions and health registers and Solar-Geomagnetic Activity (S-GMA) are found, then the challenge is to conceive of and to document a scientifically plausible and observationally supported mechanism and model. There is a large body of research correlating S-GMA with biological effects and human health effects.
There is currently an absence of a known and credible biophysical mechanism to link the S-GMA with these effects,” writes Dr Neil Cherry Associate Professor of Environmental Health at the Lincoln University in his science paper.

While Dr Neil Cherry Talks about solar flares, some scientist believes that eclipses do have some kind of desynchronize in our circadian rhythm, that is our biological clock. In both cases the pineal gland in our brain seems to be much more affected by the electromagnetic activity. Even though the medical world has not yet fully research about physical effects on people, the beliefs that eclipses are capable of producing psychological effect may pave way to discoveries on this subject.

Modern Science:
Transylvanian effect or Transylvanian hypothesis, a modern theory in intellectual literature, presumes that lunar eclipse may affect body and mind as an impact on the circadian rhythm of human body. Studies say that human and creature activities, physiological process and actions undergo alterations caused through seasonal changes circadian rhythms and lunar and solar cycles. They also state that the effects these cycles on humans and animals have been much less explored. Although medical world warns about looking at solar eclipse with naked eye, it does not say anything about lunar eclipse.

“The circadian regulatory system depends on repeated environmental cues to [synchronize] internal clocks,” says psychiatrist Kelly Posner, Columbia University. “Magnetic fields may be one of these environmental cues.”

As changes in magnetic fields happens, families have noted that some of their members have increased incidence of anxiety, depression, bipolar disorder, chaotic or confused thinking and erratic behaviors. With not enough scientific research, those who are psychologically weak seems to be more affected thus a close assistance and supervision is needed.

Human life has always been influenced by cosmological changed throughout ages and this is no secrets.

 

Psssst…Want to see the Solar Eclipse 2016?

While many stress about eye damages caused by viewing a total solar eclipse with the naked eye, many eye specialists don’t suggest the use of polarized glasses for such events. If polarized glasses are not the best match, I strongly believe so are special eclipse glasses, handmade eclipse band with flim rolls ( pellicule de photo), ect.

If you still wish to view the spectacular event, fill a plastic bucket of water place and place it in a clear and stable area to have the solar reflection. Move 1 meter away from the water bucket, you can watch the gradual phenomenon. Try not to stare for longer hours and give your eyes a break.

And the best way remains, sitting on the couch and watch a video of the solar eclipse.
Be like me, control your emotions and wait for the videos 😀

TROPICAL CYCLONE BANSI Land Hazards, Reunion island, Mauritius (4hr15 PM forecast)

Maurice / Mauritius / Rodrigues / Agalega
A cyclone warning class II is still in force in Mauritius.
Un avertissement de cyclone de Classe 2 est toujours en vigueur a Maurice.
Reunion Island/ La Réunion

Alizé modéré de secteur Est.
Moderate East trade wind.

BANSI Current Status

Current Wind Speed 85 knots / MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 125 knots / 144 MPH at Tuesday, 13 Jan 2015 4hr15 PM

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Link to real time BANSI Satellite Loop
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/storm/movies/MOV8-4.05S.GIF

Forecast for this afternoon at 4hr15: Tropical Cyclone Bansi, located approximately 191 NM North West of Port Louis, Mauritius, has tracked Eastward at 07 knots over the past six hours. The current position is based on a recent satellite eye fix from PGTW. The intensity of 100 Knots is constant with DVORAK T number estimates of 5.
5 from multiple reporting agencies.

Tropical Cyclone Bansi has continued to rapidly intensify over the past 12 hours under the influence of passage over warm water, low ventricle wind shear and dual channel outflow aloft. Tropical Cyclone Bansi is tracking eastward along the southern periphery of a near equatorial steering ridge. Generally Eastward, but slower, motion is expected to continue for the nest 48 hours as the primary steering mechanism switches over from the near equatorial ridge to a subtropical ridge to the east. After TAU 48, Tropical Cyclone Bansi is expected to turn Southeastward and accelerate along the Southwestern periphery of the subtropical steering ridge. Near-term intensification is anticipated over the next 36 hours as favorable upper-level conditions persist. Tropical Cyclone Bansi is expected to begin weakening after TAU 48 as vertical wind shear increases and along-track ocean heat content decreases. Numerical model track forecast guidance is in generally good agreement through TAU 48, lending high confidence to the first portion of the track forecast. After TAU 48, the UKMET diverges to the East and COAMP-TC to the South of the current forecast. However, ECMWF, GFS and NAVGEM are in good agreement in the TAU 48 to TAU 120 timeframe and the JTWC forecast is consistent with this grouping as well as the multi-model consensus. Maximum significant wave height at 120600Z is 26 feet.

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TROPICAL CYCLONE BANSI Land Hazards, Reunion island, Mauritius

Maurice / Mauritius / Rodrigues / Agalega
A cyclone warning class II is in force in Mauritius.
Un avertissement de cyclone de Classe 2 est en vigueur a Maurice.
Reunion Island/ La Réunion

Alizé modéré de secteur Est.
Moderate East trade wind.

BANSI Current Status
Current Wind Speed 65 knots / MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 120 knots / 138 MPH at Tuesday, 13 Jan 2015 4:15 AM

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Link to real time BANSI Satellite Loop
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/storm/movies/MOV8-4.05S.GIF
Forecast for this morning at 4hr15: Tropical Cyclone Bansi, located approximately 219NM North West of Po rt Louis, Mauritius, has tracked South-Southeastward at 04 knots over the past six hours. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a rapidly consolidating system with a 25 NM ragged eye.

Tropical Cyclone Bansi has rapidly intensified 35 knots over the past 24 hours from 30 knots to the current intensity of 65 knots. A 111611Z GPM 36 GHZ microwave image indicates a well organised low level circulation center with fragmented, multiple bands wrapping into the low level circulation center. Upper level analysis reveals a very favorable environment with dual channel outflow. There is high confidence in the current position based on the eye feature. The current intensity is based on DVORAK estimates of T4.0 (65 Knots)

From all agencies Tropical Cyclone Bansi is tracking slowly South Southeastward but is forecast to turn Eastward through TAU 36 as the near equatorial ridge shifts equatorward of the system. After  TAU 36, Tropical Cyclone Bansi should begin to steer under the influence of the subtropical ridge positioned to the east and is expecting to maintain a southeastward track through TAU 120.

The dynamic guidance is in fair agreement supporting the general track, however, GFDN AND EGRR depict an unlikely East Northeastward track through TAU 36. In direct disagreement, satellite imagery through 111930Z continues to show a southward track motion. After TAU 36, dynamic guidance reflects similar track motion and synoptic steering environment.

Overall, there is low confidence in the JTWC forecast track due to the spread in model guidance. Tropical Cyclone Bansi is forecast to continue rapidly intensifying through TAU 48 to peak of 120 Knots due to very favorable outflow and warm SST (greater than 29C). After 48, environmental conditions will gradually deteriorate as SST and ocean heat content decrease to marginal levels.
Maximum significant wave height at 111800Z is 18 feet.

EDILSON: No cyclone warning in force and tropical disturbance insight

No cyclone warning is in force in Mauritius.
Current Wind Speed 50 knots / MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 60 knots / MPH

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Last SSMIS pass at 0324Z show a remaining slight tilde due to a moderate northerly to north-westerly constraint ( 12 knot accordingly to CIMMS analysis at 00Z ), with a quite close eye wall except in the south-eastern sector under the steering influence of a northerly to north-easterly flow, Edilson is now accelerating on a south south-westwards track and this motion is expected to continue during the next 48 hours. Available guidances remain in good agreement. The sheared conditions should maintain today but due to the speed and direction of its trajectory, unfavourable effect of the shear remain limited and the system should go on deepening. Edilson is expected to maintain an asymmetric circulation with strongest winds and heavy rains mainly located within the south-eastern semi-circle. South of 20S, the northerly shear is expected to increase Friday and Saturday, NWP guidances also suggest a positive interaction with the upper level dynamics associated with the mid-latitude trough that should persist to the south-east of Madagascar. This interaction may maintain or slightly increase the intensity of the system that will evolve to a post-tropical structure.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

POSITION 2014/02/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 70.6 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 6 KT 
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SW: 260 NW: 240
FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

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The system shows a monsoon depression structure with strongest winds 30 knot located according last ASCAT data at 0402Z far from the centre of into the monsoon and trades flow north and south of the system. Until Friday, the system should track slowly mainly southwards under the current effect of two middle level high; one in the north-west and the second in the south-east. Saturday, the northern high cell is expected to become predominant and located in the north-east, so the track will be more south-eastwards. Sunday a ridge develop in the east of the system generating a northerly steering flow, then north-westerly on Monday. Until Saturday, environmental conditions are very favourable to intensification. On Sunday the system should benefit of a positive interaction with the upper level dynamics associated with the mid-latitude trough coming from the south south-east. On Monday the system is expected to remain under the axis of this trough.

EDILSON Current Status 06.02.14

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Link to real time EDILSON Satellite Loop
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/storm/movies/MOV8-4.13S.GIF

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Current Wind Speed: 40 knots / MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 60 knots / 69 MPH

Mauritius : A cyclone warning Class 3 is still in force in Mauritius.

Reunion island: Cloudy weather associated with strong winds from the south. Moderate Tropical Storm Edilson 990 hPa was located at 4 425 km North-East of the island pursuing a South-West trajectory at 22 km / h.

   EDILSON is gradually shifting its structure towards a move typical warm core system. However due to a moderate northerly to north-westerly constraint ( 12 knot according to CIMMS analysis at 00Z ) The surface centre appear displaced to the north of the convective area. Long range radar imagery from Reunion island suggest that a mid-level circulation exist within the convective area that is displaced to the south of the surface centre. The current intensity estimates, based on DVORAK, is on the very good agreement with all other available estimates (KNES AND PGTW AT 3.0 AT 2330Z). Under the steering influence of a northerly to north-easterly flow, Edilson is now accelerating on a south south-westwards track and this motion is expected to continue during the next 48 hours. Available guidances remain in good agreement.
The sheared conditions should maintain today and should not allow the system to deepen further at short range. However, if the current mid-level circulation becomes more vertically aligned with the surface centre, a stronger rate of intensification than currently indicated is possible during the next 24 hours. Edilson is expected to maintain an asymmetric circulation with strongest winds and heavy rains mainly located within the south-eastern semi-circle. South of 20S, the northerly shear is expected to increase. Friday and Saturday, NWP guidances also suggest positive interaction with the upper level dynamics associated with the mid-latitude trough that should persist to the south-east of Madagascar. This interaction may maintain or slightly increase the intensity of the system that will evolve to a post-tropical structure.

   In regard of to the expected track, the inhabitants of the Mascarene islands, particularly Mauritius should monitor the progress of the system. Radar imagery from Reunion show some heavy rain bands just a few miles off the eastern coast of Mauritius.

Mauritius 06.02.14, 24 hours cursory weather forecast.

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EDILSON Land Hazards tracker

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Link to real time EDILSON Satellite Loop
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/storm/movies/MOV8-4.13S.GIF

Mauritius: Cyclone warning Class 3 is in force.

Rodrigues: Cyclone warning Class 1 is in force.

Reunion island: Less unstable weather conditions but more humidity. Reunion is in orange vigilance alert. Moderate Tropical Storm Edilson 994 hPa was located at 540 km north-east of the island at 16 hours moving to the South-West at 15 km / h.

1. A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  10  (EDILSON)
2. A POSITION 2014/02/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 59.7 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3. A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H
4. A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5. A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :93 KM
6. A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 200 SW: 190 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0
7. A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 600 KM
8. A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/02/06 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2014/02/06 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 57.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/02/07 00 UTC: 25.0 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2014/02/07 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 52.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2014/02/08 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2014/02/08 12 UTC: 31.9 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/02/09 12 UTC: 36.2 S / 46.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2014/02/10 12 UTC: 41.3 S / 49.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

Tropical cyclone (TC) 13S EDILSON, located approximately 297 NM east north-east of Saint Denis of Reunion island, has tracked southward at 08 knots over the past six hours. A recent 12 hours animated multi-spectral satellite imagery shows the system has maintained the same symmetry and convective depth. The initial intensity is slightly higher than AGENCY DVORAK estimates of 35 knots to reflect the sustained convective signature of the system. Upper level analysis indicates TC 13S is 17 degrees south of the ridge axis in an area of light ( 05 – 10 knots ) vertical wind shear ( VWS ). Additionally, animated water vapour imagery shows good equator-ward and poleward outflow channels that are enhancing the convection. The cyclone is currently tracking along the western periphery of a mid-layered subtropical ridge ( STR ) to the east. It is expected to track on a more south westward direction as the STR builds. However, after TAU 72, a mid-latitude trough approaching from the south-west will weaken the STR and cause the cyclone to deflect south eastward towards extra-tropical transition.

Over the next 48 hours, the system is expected to gradually intensify as low VWS and good radial outflow persist. Afterwards, as TC Edilson moves further poleward, increasing VWS and cooling sea surface temperatures will begin to weaken the system and possibly dissipate it before the end of the forecast period. In view of the improved agreement among the models, there is high confidence in the JTWC track forecast.

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EDILSON Tropical cyclone tracking and update

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Link to real time EDILSON Satellite Loop
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/storm/movies/MOV8-4.13S.GIF

Mauritius: A cyclone warning Class I is in force in Mauritius.

Reunion island: Unstable weather on the whole island. Moderate Tropical Storm Edilson 995 hPa, was located 640km to the north-east of Reunion island at 04H this morning with a southward movement at 9 km / h.

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EDILSON) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 59.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

Tropical Cyclone ( TC ) 13S ( EDILSON ), located approximately 219NM North-east of Port Louis, Mauritius, has tracked southward at 06 knots over the past six hours. Recent animated infrared satellite imagery depicts formative banding tightly wrapping into a consolidating low-level circulation centre ( LLCC ). A 042018Z TRMM 37H, microwave image also reveals tightly curved banding over the eastern semi-circle wrapping into a well-defined LLCC. A 041717Z ASCAT, pass showed a 30 to 35 knot circulation with 40 knot wind barbs along the southern periphery, which supports the initial intensity assessment. Th initial position is based on the aforementioned microwave with high confidence. Upper-level analysis indicates the system is located south of the ridge axis in an area of low to moderate ( 10 – 15 knot ) vertical wind shear ( VWS ) and strong equator-ward outflow. TC 13S is forecast to track south- south-west ward along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge located to the south-east throughout the forecast period. After TAU 72, the combined effects of increasing VWS and cool sea surface temperatures will significantly weaken the system through the end of the forecast, leading to dissipation by TAU 120.

The general pattern of the system remains a monsoon low structure in the satellite imagery but the convection trends to wrap closer to the centre. On the other hand, the cyclonic curvature has accentuated and the observes pressure has still dropped ( 2 HPA since 1800z ). The low level centre is difficult to locate. Since morning, the system has slowly drifted generally southward. For the next hours. it should gradually resume on a south south-westward track over the north-western edge of the subtropical ridge and ahead of a deep mid-latitude trough located to the south-east of Madagascar.

Environmental conditions are good ( low shear, good upper level divergence on both sides ). Gradual intensification is therefore expected until Thursday. NWP models suggest that the structure could be a bit classical as the system will approach 20S. It is expected to maintain an asymmetric circulation with strongest wind and heavy rains mainly located within the south-eastern semi-circle. South of 20S, the northerly shear is expected to increase. Friday and Saturday, NWP guidances also suggest a positive interaction with the upper level dynamics associated with the mid-latitude trough that should persist to the south-east of Madagascar.

Mauritius 05.02.13, 24 hours cursory weather forecast.

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IN REGARD OF TO THE EXPECTED TRACK,THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS (PARTICULARLY 
MAURITIUS ISLAND WITH A TRANSIT EXPECTED TO CLOSER ON THURSDAY MORNING) SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.